LOGAN
— On the same day the National Weather Service issued a winter storm warning
for a large swath of Utah, one of the agency's main water forecasters appeared
ready to do a jig to celebrate the wet, wintry conditions.
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long range weather forecast last info
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long range weather forecastLong-term weather outlooks In general, meteorologists do not consider day-to-day forecasts for more than a week or 10 days ahead to be possible, and the best forecasts are for five days or less into the future. Instead of trying to predict the day-to-day weather for more than a week or 10 days ahead, forecasters produce generalized outlooks giving the odds of temperatures and precipitation being average, above average or below average for days, months, or entire seasons. U.S. National Weather Service long-range outlooks
Other long-range outlooks
Recent storms excite hydrologist and change our vision about long range weather forecast
Big Cottonwood Creek photographed on Thursday. (Laura Seitz, Deseret News)
Hydrologist Brian McInerney didn't go quite that far, but he is delighted with the storm pattern that has gripped much of the state the last week and is likely to retain its hold in the coming days. "I was just a happy boy when this happened," he said Thursday at the fifth Spring Runoff Conference at Utah State University. "I know you want to get on your flip-flops and get out and enjoy the sun, but this is the weather pattern that we want." Runoff from Big Cottonwood Creek flows down the mountain on Thursday. (Laura Seitz, Deseret News)While actual snowpack forecasts and specific predictions about Utah's spring runoff won't be available until next week, McInerney said the recent wet weather has helped tremendously. "It was a lifesaver. This is what has saved our runoff. It would have been really grim for our water supply" if mid-March conditions had persisted, he added. Those conditions were "abysmal" with temperatures 20 degrees above normal and gusty warm winds that rapidly began to deplete mountain snow. Although winter-weary residents struck with a bad case of cabin fever are longing for sunshine, McInerney said it would be ideal if the wet pattern could extend as long as late May. "It needs to stay cold and wet for as long as possible, and then we turn on the heat in late May," he said. "If we dry things off too quickly, the switch flips on, and the snowpack deteriorates too fast. You don't want to start melting snow too early." Otherwise, McInerney said his job becomes like that of a funeral director when the subject of water supplies comes up. "People are not happy to see me," he said. For now, the news is good, with the Weber River Basin area looking at a tentative 116 percent of normal for snowpack and still going strong, he said. Other northern areas of the state are hovering in the normal range, a measurement he is optimistic will get a boost with the storms settling over the state. The forecast for tonight and Friday midmorning by the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City calls for up to 16 inches of snow in the central and northern mountains of Utah and a good chance for valley snow on Saturday, giving McInerney yet another reason to dance. 
Snowshoers make their hike back down the Lake Blanche Trail in Big Cottonwood Canyon on Thursday. Laura Seitz, Deseret News
E-MAIL: amyjoi@desnews.com read also Limitations of long-range forecasts |
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