Sat 18 Aug 2007
Hurricane Dean is pictured moving west in the
Caribbean Sea in this satellite photograph taken on August 18, 2007.
REUTERS/National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Handout
All eyes watching Dean's path
Bush declares on Radio early disaster in Texas as storm
races to Jamaica
Aug. 19, 2007, 12:34AM By MARK
BABINECK, ERIC BERGER and DUDLEY ALTHAUS
Copyright 2007 found at Houston
Chronicle
Hurricane Dean streaked toward Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday, and President Bush issued a disaster declaration for Texas days
ahead of its final landfall, most recently projected for northern Mexico.
At 10 p.m. Saturday, Dean's winds were measured at 145 mph — just short
of a Category 5
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The storm was 360
miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, heading west-northwest at 17 mph.
Dean's eye was expected to hit Jamaica today and Mexico's Yucatan
Peninsula late Monday or early Tuesday. After that, National Hurricane
Center forecasters said it could land anywhere from Corpus Christi to
Veracruz, Mexico, late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Already strong, Dean may grow even more intense after it's done with
Jamaica.
Hurricanes need warm water to intensify, the deeper the warmth the
better.
That's because storms churn up lots of water, and if the deeper water is
significantly cooler than the surface, that cold water will weaken a
system's circulation.
Storm could still strengthen
The best measurement of the depth of warm water is called Tropical Cyclone
Heat Potential, and a heat potential of greater than 80 kilojoules per
square centimeter will aid rapid intensification.
Water with this heat potential was responsible for Hurricane Mitch
blowing up from a Category 2 to Category 5 hurricane in 1998.
The heat potential values between Jamaica and Mexico are at least 90,
with long stretches much higher than that, including one shortly before the
Yucatan.
Though Dean may weaken slightly over Jamaica, it will have time to
reinvigorate before the next landfall, possibly rivaling the 185 mph winds
of Hurricane Wilma, which hit the peninsula in 2005.
The major computer models all forecast the eye to make final landfall
between 130 and 350 miles south of the border. The official forecast lies in
the middle of the models.
Errors for four- and five-day forecasts remain high, however. Four days
before landfall the average forecast error is slightly more than 200 miles,
which is why Texas remains wary.
Bush, who is at his ranch in Crawford, quickly granted the disaster
declaration Gov. Rick Perry sought Saturday, White House spokesman Gordon
Johndroe said.
The unusual pre-disaster designation, which applies to 32 counties that
either could be damaged or would be likely to receive evacuees, would allow
federal aid to flow more quickly after landfall.
Harris, Brazoria, Chambers and Galveston counties are on the list.
South Padre gets ready
The resort town of South Padre Island, on a half-mile-wide strip of
unprotected barrier island, started girding itself Saturday by declaring a
state of emergency.
Even if the eye strikes 60 miles south of the city, Mayor Robert N.
Pinkerton Jr. fretted about a possible Category 3 or 4 storm surge of 12 to
14 feet and waves at 18 to 20 feet that would cover the island, which is
barely above sea level.
"No one here has seen such predicted wave activity," Pinkerton
said.
Blackbeard's Restaurant, which was two years old in 1980 the last time a
hurricane swamped South Padre, is now an island institution.
Mark Westbrook, the general manager, said the island will stay open until
authorities tell everyone to get out.
"It's just business as usual," Westbrook said. "You're
just being cautious and optimistic."
Brownsville called for voluntary evacuations, and a Texas Youth
Commission facility in the area also began moving juveniles and staff
inland.
Houston keeps watch
In Houston, some folks were paying attention to the "Hurricane forming
near Gulf" electronic road signs that also urged drivers to top off
their gas tanks. Stores saw increased sales of bottled water, batteries,
plywood and other typical items.
Heights-area resident Doretta Kinat pushed a cart filled with bottled
water and some batteries out of the Super Target store west of downtown. She
didn't anticipate Dean hitting anywhere near Houston, but thought it was as
good a time as any to get storm-ready.
"We normally drink bottled water anyway," she said. "I buy
extra, just in case."
Jamaica opened shelters nationwide on Saturday ahead of Dean, which
killed three people and devastated crops after it strafed several eastern
Caribbean islands. Tourists streamed to the airport and Prime Minister
Portia Simpson-Miller tried to bolster her people.
"Let us band together and unite in the threat of this
hurricane," Simpson-Miller said.
Dean lashed Haiti and the Dominican Republic with heavy rains as it spun
to the south, but appeared to be saving its might for Jamaica and the
Yucatan.
Mexico's federal government declared a state of emergency Saturday for
Yucatan state's 106 townships. Campeche state, also on the peninsula, has
been put on a lower level of alert, as has Veracruz on the coast.
More than 70,000 tourists are estimated to be visiting Cancun and the
Riviera Maya area. Felix Gonzalez, the Quintana Roo state governor, ordered
the evacuation of some 5,000 residents from a handful of small outlying
islands. And he said that tourists should leave Isla Mujeres, Cancun, Playa
del Carmen and other resorts.
Oil companies make moves
In addition, airport officials at Cancun and Cozumel were asking airlines to
cancel or divert scheduled incoming flights. Gonzalez said 60,000 tourists
had been scheduled to arrive along Mexico's Caribbean coast this weekend.
Federal police were set to arrive in Cancun today to prevent the sort of
looting that occurred after Hurricane Wilma in October 2005, Gonzalez said.
Petroleos Mexicanos, the state oil monopoly, said it is making plans
regarding its prolific Bay of Campeche oil platforms. Mexico exports 1.5
million barrels of oil a day to the United States, most of it through the
Houston area.
Shell Oil Co. has evacuated nearly 800 workers from the Gulf and expects
to bring more ashore. The Interior Department's Minerals Management Service
estimated Dean had prompted shut-ins of about 10,300 barrels of oil and 16
million cubic feet of natural gas per day, more than double the production
reduction from Friday.
Both amounts are small fractions of total Gulf production.
Chronicle reporters Julie Mason in Crawford and Tom Fowler in Houston
and the Associated Press contributed to this report. Althaus reported from
Mexico City.
mark.babineck@chron.com;
eric.berger@chron.com;
dqalthaus@yahoo.com
Bush OKs pre-landfall hurricane emergency for Texas on Radio
By Tabassum Zakaria found at news.scotsman.com
CRAWFORD, Texas (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush on Saturday
approved a pre-landfall emergency declaration for Texas to provide federal help
if the state is hit by Hurricane Dean, White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe
said.
The emergency declaration, which was requested by the governor of Texas,
allows the federal government to move in emergency personnel, equipment and
supplies now in the event the state is struck by the storm, he said.
The Bush administration was sharply criticized for a slow federal government
response to Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the Gulf Coast, including New
Orleans, in August 2005.
"What's a result of Katrina is the federal government's pro-active
stance to go to the states and say you have this option, come to us now and
request it," Johndroe said.
"What has been put in place since Katrina for the best practices was the
federal government going out early to the states and saying if you're not
thinking about this already, think about it now, call us, get the paperwork
going," he said.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency is working with Texas to address
"special needs populations" such as the elderly or people with special
medical needs or transportation difficulties along the south Texas border, which
is currently projected to be in the storm's path, Johndroe said.
Bush, who is vacationing at his Crawford ranch, was briefed twice on Saturday
about Hurricane Dean, which is threatening to become a Category 5 storm and is
taking aim at Jamaica and Mexico.
The U.S. ambassador to Jamaica is working with Jamaican authorities to
provide U.S. support that may be needed, such as relief supplies like water
containers, medicine and generators, Johndroe said.
U.S. emergency authorities are also reaching out to their counterparts in
Mexico to assess if they will need assistance, he said.
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This article: http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=1314202007
Last updated: 18-Aug-07 22:53 BST
