(Bloomberg) -- Wheat production in Australia, the world's third-largest
exporter of the grain, may miss a government forecast as dry weather threatens
to reduce yields, a Bloomberg survey of analysts showed.
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Australia wheat weather last info
Australia wheat weather last info
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Australia's Weather Wheat Output May Miss Government Forecast
By Madelene Pearson found at bloomberg.com Aug. 20, 2007 read also canada weather A field of Australian wheat
The nation may produce 20.75 million metric tons this harvest, according to the median estimate of eight analysts and traders. That compares with a government forecast of 22.5 million tons made in June. Wheat prices in Chicago have surged 87 percent in the past year as drought reduced Australia's last harvest to 9.8 million tons, and unfavorable weather damaged crops in the U.S. and Ukraine. A lower-than-expected Australian crop this year may further deplete global inventories and help to keep prices near record levels. ``We really are on a knife's edge for the crop this season,'' Luke Chandler, a Sydney-based analyst at Rabobank Groep, said. ``Very low subsoil moisture this season, following last season's drought has meant that follow-up rain is even more critical than normal.'' Australia's output may be between 14 million tons and 23 million tons, the analysts and traders said today by telephone and e-mail. Yields are at risk from dry weather, with less than 40 percent of average rain in most growing regions this month. ``It really could go either way,'' Brett Stevenson, managing director of Sydney-based forecaster AgRisk Management Pty., said. ``It's a very, very nervous wait.'' Dwindling Stockpiles Wheat for December delivery, which reached a record $7.19 a bushel on Aug. 15, fell as much as 10.5 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $6.78 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade in after-hours electronic trading. The contract was at $6.83 a bushel at 1:17 p.m. in Sydney. Global inventories of wheat are expected to fall to 114.8 million tons by May 31, the lowest in 26 years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Aug. 10. Rain is forecast for parts of Western Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland states in the coming four days, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's Web site. There's about a 35 percent to 50 percent chance of above-average rain in the three months ending in October, the weather forecaster said. ``The world is looking out for the Australian crop,'' said Steve Dalton, from grain traders Ecom Commodities. ``While there is a question mark over production, that is going to keep the market reasonably nervous and supported around these sorts of levels.'' Crops Vulnerable Crops in northern New South Wales, northern Western Australia and southern Queensland states are most ``vulnerable,'' Dalton said. Rain in parts of northern New South Wales in the past few days will keep the crop going a few more weeks, he said. Crops in parts of southern Queensland state had been saved by as much as 70 millimeters of rain over the weekend, state farm lobby group Agforce said in an e-mailed release today. ``We were set up to have a big crop, but it's only going to come to fruition if we have the rain to finish it off,'' said Ecom's Dalton, who's tipping a crop between 18 million tons and 22 million tons, with potential to be lower. New South Wales was forecast to replace Western Australia as the nation's largest wheat-producing state this harvest. About 76 percent of the state is in drought as at Aug. 9, the New South Wales government said on its Web site. That compares with 70 percent a month earlier. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, the government commodity forecaster, is scheduled to give its next forecast on Sept. 18. To contact the reporter on this story: Madelene Pearson in Melbourne on mpearson1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 20, 2007 00:10 EDT
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